It is hard to believe another hurricane season is on our door step. The Governor in cooperation with the national Weather Service and the NC Dept of Crime Control and Public Safety will declare May 24-30, 2009 as Hurricane Preparedness Week. This coincides withe the National Hurricane Preparedness Week (See http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare).

I have attached each of the daily statements for you to use as you see fit. We will also have all the information lined to from our website (http://weather.gov/rah) if you wish to point people to our website.

The Hurricane Outlook was issued today.
(see http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090521_atlantichurricane.html)
Here is a summary...
Forecast calls for a normal to slightly above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season.
14 named storms of which 4 to 7 could become hurricanes including 1 to 3 major hurricanes (with winds in excess of 111 mph). An average season has 11 named storms, including 6 hurricanes with 2 becoming major hurricanes. It is important to stress that even a "normal" hurricane season could spell disaster for NC and preparedness is key.

Also please visit and advertise the Hurricane Floyd Commemorative website. This website has a lot of great information and is very interactive. See http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/Floyd/

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

This week has been declared North Carolina's Hurricane PreparednessWeek for 2009. All week long the National Weather Service will beissuing informative messages to help you prepare for hurricaneseason.

Today we will talk about hurricane history in North Carolina and the outlookfor 2009.

This hurricane season NOAA is predicting 14 named storms of which 4 to 7 couldbecome hurricanes including 1 to 3 major hurricanes with winds in excess of 111mph. An average season has 11 named storms…including 6 hurricanes with 2becoming major hurricanes. Despite forecasts of a near normal hurricane season…
any one of these storm could spell disaster for North Carolina and preparing for these storms is key. North Carolina is one of the most hurricane ravaged states in the country. A look back at our hurricane history tells the story.

North Carolina receives more than its share of tropical storms and hurricanes. Over the past 15 years North Carolina has seen presidentially declared disasters resulting from hurricanes in locations from the Outer Banks to the Blue Ridge mountains. No part of our state has gone unaffected from these giant storms.

Ever since the first expeditions to Roanoke Island in 1586 hurricanes have been recorded to have caused extensive damage to the state. Reliable tracking and classifications of tropical systems did not begin until nearly 300 years later in 1886. Since that time over 1000 tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Nearly 20 percent of all these tropical systems passed with in at least 300 miles of North Carolina. Statically the coast of North Carolina can expect to receive a direct hit from a land falling tropical system once every 4 years. In any given year there is a 33 percent chance that a tropical storm or hurricane will track directly over Central North Carolina. Increase the time period to every 3 years and the chance of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane increases to nearly 70 percent for locations from Interstate 95 west to the Triad. Tropical systems can bring the threat of heavy rains, flooding and tornadoes nearly every summer as tropical system make landfall to our south and then move north.

Since records have been kept dating back to 1806, around 70 tropical systems have made direct landfall on the North Carolina coast. Even more disturbing is the fact that around 100 tropical systems have moved through and impacted the state without actually making landfall along the coast. North Carolina's unique geography with respect to its protruding coastline makes the state a favorable target for hurricanes. Residents living in the eastern half of North Carolina from Raleigh to the coast stick out in the Atlantic Ocean along the same longitude as the Florida coast and Bahamas. This geographical fact makes the coast from Wilmington to Cape Hatteras the most favorable location for hurricane and tropical storm landfalls.

The most active months for tropical systems in North Carolina are August and September. However hurricanes have wreaked havoc as early as late June and as late as mid November. The peak tropical activity usually occurs in a six week period from mid August to late September. During active cycles in hurricane activity North Carolina can experience multiple hurricanes and tropical storms within weeks of each other. Years when North Carolina has been hit by more than one tropical system include...

1842
1899
1933
1954 Carol...Edna and Hazel
1955 Connie...Diane and Ione
1971 Doria and Ginger

1996 Arthur...Bertha and Fran
1999 Dennis and Floyd

2004 Bonnie, Charley, Gaston, Jeanne, Frances and Ivan2006 Alberto and Ernesto
2008 Cristobal and Hanna

Hurricane Hazel remains the most powerful hurricane to ever make landfall in North Carolina. Hazel struck a category 4 hurricane with winds of 144 mph. Since that time hurricane Floyd in 1999 became the costliest hurricane in North Carolina history. Sixty-six counties were presidentially declared disaster areas following Floyd. Total storm losses exceeded six billion dollars. Hurricane Fran...the second costliest hurricane in state history...was the last hurricane to severely impact the Raleigh area.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

...NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

This week has been declared North Carolina's Hurricane PreparednessWeek for 2009. All week long the National Weather Service will be issuing informative messages to help you prepare for hurricaneseason.

Each day we will cover a different topic. Today we will talk about tornadoes in tropical systems.

Nearly all tropical storms and hurricanes produce tornadoes which add to the storms destruction. Seventeen percent of all tornadoes in Central North Carolina have been associated with tropical systems. In 2004, a record year for tornadoes in North Carolina, around 45 tornadoes touched down in North Carolina from the coast to the mountains spawned by the remnants of Bonnie...Charley...Gaston...Frances and Ivan. No region of the state has avoided tropical tornadoes. Three people died during the 2004 tropical season as a tornado ripped apart their mobile home in Pender County during tropical storm Bonnie. Both hurricanes Floyd and Fran also produced numerous tornadoes destroying homes in central and eastern North Carolina.

Tornadoes are typically the first threat North Carolina faces from hurricanes as the outer rain bands push inland nearly a hundred of miles ahead of the hurricane eye. The tornado threat precedes the hurricane landfall by many hours. As the first outer rain bands from the system move inland well away from the center of circulation...tornadoes usually occur.

Most tornadoes in tropical systems occur north and east of the primary circulation or eye. This region of the storm has the most shear and favorable wind profiles necessary for tornado development. Since tropical squalls typically move at 40 to 60 mph…tornadoes embedded in these bands strike quickly with little warning. Tropical tornadoes develop in a matter of minutes and forecasters work diligently providing warnings for those circulations that will become tornadic.

Most tornadoes associated with the outer bands of a tropical system are relatively weak...however these weak tornadoes still pack winds of 100 to 130mph. This is enough to demolish mobile homes...severely damage well built houses and in some cases flip cars.

No mobile home or manufactured home is safe in hurricane force or tornadic winds.  Residents in mobile homes should always evacuate to a safer structure which may include the home of another family member or friend nearby. When sheltering in a sturdy building...you want to take shelter on the lowest floor in a bathroom or closet when high winds threaten.

When a tropical system is forecast to move into the area you can expect tornadoes. Realize the tropical systems can make landfall in another state other than North Carolina and still pose a serious tornado threat to your home and family. You should always monitor local forecasts paying attention totornado outlooks…watches and warnings issued well in advance of the tropical system.

A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

This week has been declared North Carolina's Hurricane PreparednessWeek for 2009. All week long the National Weather Service will beissuing informative messages to help you prepare for hurricaneseason.

Each day we will cover a different topic. Today we will talk about high winds.

The intensity of a land falling hurricane is expressed in terms of categories that relate to wind speeds and potential damage. A category one hurricane, on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, has lighter wind when compared to highercategory hurricanes. A category 4 hurricane...like hurricanes Hazel and Hugo...contains winds between 131-155 mph, and would be expected to cause 100 times more damage than a category 1 hurricane.

Even tropical storm force winds of less than 74 mph are capable tossing around debris and causing damage similar to that seen from Hurricane Fran around the Raleigh area. For this reason, you need hide from the wind seeking shelter in a sturdy building as the hurricane moves inland and before the onset of tropical storm force winds. Tropical storm force winds usually hit hours ahead of the actual hurricane eye. For this reason many emergency officials typically have evacuations completed and personnel sheltered before the onset of tropical storm force winds.

Hurricane force winds can easily destroy poorly constructed buildings and mobile homes. Debris such as signs, roofing material, and items left outside become flying missiles in high wind. Falling trees cause extensive damage to powerlines, towers and underground water lines. This can cause extended disruptionsof utility services. Damaging hurricane force winds can be just as devastating as tornadoes.

The strongest winds in the hurricane usually occur in the right side of the eye wall. Wind speed usually decreases significantly 12 hours after landfall.

Nonetheless, as seen in hurricanes Hazel and Hugo...hurricane force winds can extend far inland, so those living along and near the hurricanes forecast path should take the threat of flying debris and falling trees very seriously.
Hurricane Hugo which made landfall near Charleston South Carolina battered Charlotte...175 miles inland...with nearly 100 mph gusts.

You can protect windows by installing hurricane shutters or prepare 5/8 plywood panels. This will not only protect your windows, but it also keeps the wind out of your house. If the wind is able to enter a house through a window or door, it becomes much easier for the wind to destroy a home or building. Garage doors are also very susceptible to high wind and fail frequently in tropical storms and hurricanes when wind gusts exceed 70 mph. Reinforcing garage doors with affordable braces significantly increase structural integrity.

Things you can do before a storm threatens include assessing your homes landscaping and assess the threat from falling trees. Trim back any dead limbs as well as large overhanging limbs. Pick up all loose objects around the house including lawn furniture…grills and potted plants. Lastly have a plan of where to go if high wind threatens you. Talk with your family and let everyone know where your predetermined safe room is in your home. Again interior hallways, closets and bathrooms are the safest locations. Always stay away from windows and exterior doors. 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC800 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

...NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

This week has been declared North Carolina's Hurricane PreparednessWeek for 2009. All week long the National Weather Service will beissuing informative messages to help you prepare for hurricane season.

Each day we will cover a different topic. Today we will talk about Inland flooding.

Inland flooding is the most serious and deadly threat hurricanes bring to inland areas of North Carolina. Most hurricane deaths over the past 30 years have been the result of inland flooding. During the past 30 year period more than half(59%) of all U.S. tropical cyclone deaths have occurred from inland freshwater flooding. Nearly 78 percent of all children killed by tropical cyclones drown in these floods. Around 80 percent of all flooding deaths have occurred in automobiles as people attempt to drive through flooded areas where water covers the road.

As we look back 10 years ago to Hurricane Floyd it is important to remember of the 56 people who perished...50 drowned due to inland flooding and most in automobiles. The NWS safety campaign Turn Around…Don’t Drown is aimed at educating everyone about the dangers of driving into flood waters.

It is important to realize the amount of rain a hurricane produces is not related to the intensity of the wind. Weak hurricanes and even tropical storms have caused disastrous floods throughout history. For example in 2006… the remnants of Topical Storm Alberto moved over central North Carolina dropping 4 to 8 inches of rain from Sanford to Raleigh. This resulted in major flooding along numerous creeks including Swift creek in Apex and Crabtree Creek in Raleigh.

So what can you do?
Anytime a hurricane or tropical storm threatens...think flooding. It is very important to determine if you live in an area at risk of flooding from heavy rainfall. If your yard or nearby road around your home floods during ordinary thunderstorms you are at serious risk of flooding from torrential tropical rainfall. Those living near creeks...streams and drainage ditches should also watch water levels closely. Remember, extreme rainfall events bring extreme flooding and during extreme events even those area which normally do not flood are at risk.

Always keep abreast of road conditions making sure your escape route is not becoming flooded by heavy rain. Never attempt to cross flowing water. As little as six inches of flowing water may force your car off the road and downstream into deadly conditions.

Never allow children to play near creeks...stream or drainage ditches. As rainwater runs off creeks...streams and ditches fill with running water that can easily sweep a child away.


Lastly...have an emergency action plan and know your homeowners and flood insurance policies. Flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance.

Do not make assumptions. Check your policies.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

This week has been declared North Carolina's Hurricane Preparedness Week for 2009. All week long the National Weather Service will be issuing informative messages to help you prepare for hurricane season.

Each day we will cover a different topic. Today we will talk about the forecast process.

The National Hurricane Center...
The primary mission of the National Weather Service and Tropical Prediction Center is to save lives and protect property by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics. In the last 15 years hurricane track forecasts have improved over 50 percent. Hurricane track forecasts are more reliable today than ever and more accurate forecasts mean better preparations before the storm strikes.

Observation...
When forecasting and warning for hurricanes the National Weather Service uses all of the tools in the arsenal. Satellites...Buoys...Aircraft and radar are all important tools used for hurricane tracking and prediction. While hurricanes arestill far out in the ocean, indirect measurements of the storms intensity and behavior are made primarily via satellite, although ships and buoys provide some observations. Once the storms come within range of aircraft more direct measurements are taken by reconnaissance aircraft which drop radio sondes into the core of the storm. Within about 200 miles of the coast, radar provides important measurements of the storm. Computer models used to forecast storm intensity and movement require a great deal of data about the atmosphere including all the observation date from satellites, aircraft, ships and radar.

Model guidance...
Computer models take all the various observations and perform millions of calculations to generate predictions of hurricane behavior. The atmosphere in which the hurricane is moving is very important to hurricane intensity and motion. The output from these computer models are packaged as guidance and evaluated by hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center as well as local National Weather Service forecast offices.

Hurricane forecasters must look at all of the model results, which frequently give widely different pictures of the future. When the models disagree, hurricane forecasters must use their experience and judgment to decide which model is performing the best under the current conditions. A good forecaster has an extensive education in the science of meteorology and considerable experience in tropical forecasting. Forecasters recognize that conditions can change quickly. This is why forecasts talk about "probabilities" and "margin of error".

Product generation...
Once forecasts, watches and warnings have been coordinated along the coast between the National Hurricane Center and local National Weather Service offices the National Hurricane Center generates the hurricane forecast and warning products. Hurricane forecasts are issued 4 times a day when hurricanes are present in the Atlantic Ocean... Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico at 5 am... 11am... 5 pm... and 11 pm edt.


Information dissemination...
All of this hurricane forecast and warning information is sent out to all media outlets for relay to everyone. Television…radio…the Internet and NOAA weather radio are some of the best means to get the most up to date hurricane information. The internet can also be a good source of information. You can visit the Raleigh National Weather Service office at http://weather.gov/rah to get local forecasts and hurricane forecasts and warnings.

Your local Raleigh National Weather Service office...
The role of the Raleigh National Weather Service office is to take the hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and localize the threat to central North Carolina. The local National Weather Service office closely examines the threats of wind... tornadoes... rainfall and flooding. This information is provided to local and state emergency management as well as the media. The Raleigh NWS office will issue river flood and flash flood warnings to help save lives from flood waters that occur after a hurricane drops torrential rain.
Tornado warnings will also be issued by the Raleigh office as forecasters detect them on the doppler radar.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

This week has been declared North Carolina's Hurricane Preparedness Week for 2009. All week long the National Weather Service will be issuing informative messages to help you prepare for hurricane season.

Each day we will cover a different topic. Today we will talk about being prepared.

Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by everyone. Any time you are asked to evacuate, you should do so without delay. But unless you live in a coastal area…in a low-lying area…an area that floods frequently, or in a mobile home…it is unlikely that you will be asked you to evacuate. That means it is important for you and your family to HAVE A PLAN that makes you as safe as possible in your home. Disaster prevention includes modifying your homes landscaping to limit the threat from falling trees and strengthening your home from within against storms. Preparedness also includes having the supplies onhand to weather the storm.

DEVELOP A SIMPLE FAMILY PLAN - Your family's plan should be based on your vulnerability to hurricane hazards including high wind, flooding, tornadoes and falling trees. In a disaster you should plan to be able to provide for yourself and your family for 5 days without utility services or outside aid. Share your plan with others in your family. Locate the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard. In certain circumstances the safest area may not be your home but within your community. Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet outside the home should you have to evacuate quickly. Have an out-of-state friend as a family contact who knows your plan and where you will go during adisaster, so all your family members have a single point of contact. Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate. Check your insurance coverage - flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance. Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.

CREATE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT - There are certain items you need to have regardless of where you ride out a hurricane. Important items for your kit include…

Water - at least 1 gallon daily per person for 3 to 7 days.

Food - at least enough for 3 to 7 days non-perishable packaged or canned food and juices. Include foods for infants or the elderly as well as snack foods, non-electric can opener in a must along with cooking tools, fuel, paper plates and plastic utensils .

Blankets and Pillows

Clothing - seasonal clothes along with rain gear and sturdy shoes.
First Aid Kit including Medicines and Prescription Drugs.

Special Items for babies and the elderly.

Toiletries and Hygiene items along with moisture and disinfectant wipes.

Flashlights and Batteries.

Radio - Battery operated and NOAA weather radio.

Cash primarily in the form of with some small bills.

Important documents kept in a waterproof container or watertight re-sealable plastic bag or box including insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security cards, and so on.

Tools - keep a set with you during the storm.

Vehicle fuel tanks filled.

Pet care items including proper identification, immunization records, medications, ample supply of food and water and a carrier or cage.

SECURE YOUR HOME - There are things that you can do to make your home more secure and able to withstand stronger storms. Be sure to secure loose outdoor items around the house before the wind starts to blow. How well you and yourfamily cope with a disaster will depend on how well you plan, prepare and react.

Realize disasters occur everywhere in our state and hurricanes pose the greatest threat for large scale disasters. Preparing for tomorrows storm today is the best thing you can do for yourself and your family.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

...NORTH CAROLINA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK...

This week has been declared North Carolina's Hurricane Preparedness Week for 2009. All week long the National Weather Service will be issuing informative messages to help you prepare for hurricane season.

If you are HURRICANE AWARE you will be able to answer these questions.

What are the Hurricane Hazards? What threats do wind and tornadoes pose to my home and family?

Is Inland Flooding a serious issue?

Do I live in an area prone to flooding and is my house surrounded by large trees?

Am I seeking shelter in a strong sturdy home?

What actions should I take to be prepared?

Do I have a Family Disaster Plan, Disaster Supply Kit and a place to evacuate to if necessary?

Taking action is as easy as one…two…three…
Before hurricane season you should…
Assemble your Disaster Supply Kit. These items are often scattered around your home and simply need to be brought together into one location. Also develop your Family Disaster Plan. Discuss the possible hazards with your family. Determine if you are in an evacuation area and where you would go if you had to evacuate, Identify an out-of-town family contact.

When a Hurricane Watch is issued for the North Carolina Coast you should…Check your Disaster Supply Kit. Make sure nothing is missing. Determine if there is anything you need to supplement your kit and replenish your water. Then activate your Family Disaster Plan. Protective measures should be initiated, especially those with coastal property including houses and boats.

When a Hurricane Warning is issued you should… Ready your Disaster Supply Kit for use. If you need to evacuate, you should bring your Supply Kit with you. Use your Family Disaster Plan. Your family should be in the process of completing protective actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm.

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